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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR FUTURES
- Implied hikes are little changed from Friday’s close for upcoming meetings, with 74bp for Jul and 130bp for Sep.
- They’ve softened further out, with 186bp to Dec (-3bps) and a peak 196bps to Mar’23 (-4bps) but still keep at least half the increase from Friday’s payrolls report. It sees the curve modestly more inverted thereafter, with 55bp of cuts to end-2023.
- Fedspeak: NY Fed’s Williams is scheduled to speak on the Libor transition at 1400ET in what should see limited mon pol discussion, but in any case, he repeated on Friday that he sees a July rate hike of 50bp or 75bp as the right positioning and a year-end rate of 3-3.5% remains the right thing to do. A US recession is not his base case, but tighter financial conditions are starting to have an effect and he will closely watch data over the next 3-6 months for a better read.
Cumulative hikes implied by FOMC-dated Fed FundsSource: Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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