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Fed Hikes Keep To Friday’s Softer Path

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes see little impact from the miss in Germany’s Ifo survey, not materially adding to Friday’s notable misses in both the EA and then US PMIs, ECB's Kazaks saying the ECB isn't done with big hikes.
  • Hovering at 78bps for Wed before a cumulative 136bp for Sep and 178bp over the four meetings to year-end, back to where they were before the US CPI beat.
  • As has been the case recently, that sees an implied terminal rate in Dec’22, currently at 3.36%, before almost 60bps of cuts priced for 2023.

Source: Bloomberg

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  • Fed Funds implied hikes see little impact from the miss in Germany’s Ifo survey, not materially adding to Friday’s notable misses in both the EA and then US PMIs, ECB's Kazaks saying the ECB isn't done with big hikes.
  • Hovering at 78bps for Wed before a cumulative 136bp for Sep and 178bp over the four meetings to year-end, back to where they were before the US CPI beat.
  • As has been the case recently, that sees an implied terminal rate in Dec’22, currently at 3.36%, before almost 60bps of cuts priced for 2023.

Source: Bloomberg