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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed Funds implied rates for the next two meetings stick to yesterday’s 1bp nudge lower on CPI, but otherwise have chipped away at larger declines for meetings later into 2024.
- Cumulative hikes from 5.33% effective: +1bp for next week (unch), +10bp for Nov (unch) and +12.5bp for Dec to a terminal 5.45% (+0.5bp from yesterday).
- Cuts from terminal: 35bp to Jun’24 (from 36bp) and 101bp to Dec’24 (from 103bp). As noted ahead of CPI, the pace of rate cuts is now aligned with the Fed’s June dot plot, albeit from a higher starting point with the median FOMC participant at the time seeing an additional hike in 2023 compared to the 50/50 odds currently priced.
- An important session ahead with potential spillover from a close ECB decision, with both retail sales and PPI landing in between the announcement and press conference. PPI has added weight after yesterday’s CPI upside surprise was driven by some categories that are more reliant on PPI for core PCE calculations.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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