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Fed Inversion Re-Widens, Pre-Blackout Fedspeak Eyed

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes holding yesterday’s gain for the Sept FOMC (72bps, +0.5bp), with BNP latest to join the 75bp view with a 25bp increase in terminal to 3.5-3.75%.
  • Pricing cools further out, with 148bps to 3.80% (-1bp) for Dec and 159bps to terminal 3.91% (-2bp) in Mar’23 before widening inversion with 3.51% (-6bps) for Dec’23.
  • Key Fedspeak from Governor Waller and George (’22) separately at 1200ET. Evans at 1000ET unlikely of note after yesterday saw topping out at 4% “before too long” before pausing.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied September hike (white) and rates at specific meetings thereafterSource: Bloomberg

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