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Fed Path Holding Post-FOMC Levels Ahead Of Payrolls, ISM

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes are little changed from post-FOMC levels after reversing a further dip with the ECB.
  • 20bp priced for March, a cumulative 30/31bps to May/Jun with a terminal of 4.89% before 50bps of cuts to 4.39% end-2023.
  • Cuts have built from 44bps just prior to the FOMC but remain within ranges seen since last month’s miss for AHE and ISM services, both of which are due ahead.
  • First out of the FOMC blackout, SF Fed’s Daly (’24 voter) is due at 1430ET with scope for earlier pop-ups post-payrolls.

Source: Bloomberg

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