November 14, 2024 20:10 GMT
FED: Powell Repeats That FOMC In No "Hurry" To Lower Rates
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Chair Powell's speech today (link) contains several quotes that sound similar to what he said at last week's press conference. As such, nothing really "new", but by the same token there is nothing dovish here, which may help explain the hawkish market reaction:
- "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates. The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully. " Powell last week: "we think that the right way to find neutral, if you will, is carefully, patiently"... "Nothing in the economic data suggests that the Committee has any need to be in a hurry to get there." [to neutral]
- Powell today: "we feel like the story is very consistent with inflation, continuing to come down on a bumpy path over the next couple of years and settling around two percent". Powell last week: "With labor market conditions in rough balance and inflation expectations well anchored, I expect inflation to continue to come down toward our 2 percent objective, albeit on a sometimes-bumpy path."
Powell gives us an early read on the Fed's core PCE estimate for October (which presumably includes PPI today). Suggests a core PCE reading in the high 0.2s% M/M, consistent with the sell-side post-PPI estimates we've seen today.
- "Estimates based on the consumer price index and other data released this week indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.3 percent over the 12 months ending in October and that, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.8 percent."
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