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STIR: Fed Pricing Unmoved By Durable Goods

STIR
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Fed pricing essentially unmoved by the softer-than-expected durable goods data, with markets remaining very much geared towards the inflation and employment outlooks after last week’s hawkish Fed cut.

  • Fed funds futures price 38bp of cuts through ’25, with the next 25bp move not fully discounted until June (~13bp priced through the March meeting and ~18bp showing through the May meeting).
  • Our macro team highlights strike action as a likely headwind for the headline durable goods prints, with the core readings more upbeat.
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Fed pricing essentially unmoved by the softer-than-expected durable goods data, with markets remaining very much geared towards the inflation and employment outlooks after last week’s hawkish Fed cut.

  • Fed funds futures price 38bp of cuts through ’25, with the next 25bp move not fully discounted until June (~13bp priced through the March meeting and ~18bp showing through the May meeting).
  • Our macro team highlights strike action as a likely headwind for the headline durable goods prints, with the core readings more upbeat.