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Fed Rate Path Back Near Post-ISM Services Lows, Bostic Ahead

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates sit close to the day’s lows, pushed lower by broader moves including a heavy decline in crude oil futures (1st WTI -4.5%) before being supported by softer Manheim used car prices and NY Fed inflation expectations releases.
  • It leaves a cumulative 18bp of cuts for the March FOMC, 66bp for June and 144bp for Dec, the latter up from 137bp at the start of the US session.
  • Up next, Atlanta Fed’s Bostic (’24 voter) on the economic outlook at the bottom of the hour, without text. He last spoke Dec 19 when he surprisingly indicated himself at the hawkish end of the FOMC spectrum in looking for two cuts this year starting 2H24.
  • We watch to see any reaction to Friday’s labor data and whether there is pushback on looser financial conditions, the latter seen in Dallas Fed Logan’s weekend remarks that primarily focused on QT considerations.

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