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STIR: Fed Rate Path Consolidates NFP Hawkish Shift

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates are little changed from Friday’s close, with little net impact from President Trump saying Sunday he will impose fresh 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports.
  • It does however help consolidate the hawkish shift seen on Friday’s NFP report. See a recap of it here and a summary of all the main macro developments of the week here.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 2bp Mar, 7.5bp May, 15bp Jun, 20bp Jul, 26.5bp Sep and 36.5bp Dec.
  • Today sees a particularly light macro docket, with calendar focus on Chair Powell’s Senate testimony on Tue before CPI on Wed. Of course, politics will remain at the fore with Trump having pledged to announce reciprocal tariffs on Tue or Wed. 
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  • Fed Funds implied rates are little changed from Friday’s close, with little net impact from President Trump saying Sunday he will impose fresh 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports.
  • It does however help consolidate the hawkish shift seen on Friday’s NFP report. See a recap of it here and a summary of all the main macro developments of the week here.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 2bp Mar, 7.5bp May, 15bp Jun, 20bp Jul, 26.5bp Sep and 36.5bp Dec.
  • Today sees a particularly light macro docket, with calendar focus on Chair Powell’s Senate testimony on Tue before CPI on Wed. Of course, politics will remain at the fore with Trump having pledged to announce reciprocal tariffs on Tue or Wed. 
image