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Fed Rate Path Consolidates The Week’s Initial Increase

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates are little changed on the day, led by a 1bp increase for the May meeting.
  • It leaves broader levels a little higher than shortly before yesterday’s FOMC minutes, with a cumulative 18.5bp of cuts for March, 66bp for June and 146bp for December – see table.
  • The Dec’24 implied rate is 12bp higher from Friday’s close with the wider path back at levels from Dec 19/20 before declines were helped supported by downward GDP and core PCE revisions.
  • The FOMC minutes suggest discussion around reducing interest rates later this year was limited to penciling in a median three rate cuts for 2024 in the quarterly projections, a similar take to Chair Powell’s clarification on the matter when asked in the FOMC press conference for the Dec 13 meeting and NY Fed's Williams' post-meeting remarks.

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