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Fed Rate Path Continues Higher For Longer

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes at 82bp (+0.5bp) for next week, maintaining just off recent highs of ~85bps post-CPI.
  • Continued increase for later meetings though, with a cumulative 151bps for Sep & Nov (+2bp), terminal now 4.41% in Mar’23 (+2bp) and a flattening with 3.95% for Dec’23 (+5bp on day, +13bp since post-CPI close).
  • Heavy docket today including retail sales, the first Sep business surveys and jobless claims plus additional inflation focus with import prices (ex-oil cons. -0.6% M/M).

FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures implied Sept FOMC hike (white) and specific rates at subsequent meetings (bottom panel)Source: Bloomberg

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