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Fed Rate Path Continues To Ponder Dec Stepdown

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes are off overnight lows but hold near late Friday levels after WSJ focus on a potential stepdown to a 50bp hike in Dec and a dovish Daly.
  • 77bp for Nov 2, 137bps to 4.45% Dec, terminal 4.87% for May’23 (off highs of 5.02% early Fri) and 4.57% for Dec’23.
  • Little reaction in ECB pricing to the miss for EA PMI mfg flash let alone spillover to the US, but remains to be seen if that’s the case with the US flash PMIs at 0945ET. Fed in media blackout.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied rateSource: Bloomberg

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  • Fed Funds implied hikes are off overnight lows but hold near late Friday levels after WSJ focus on a potential stepdown to a 50bp hike in Dec and a dovish Daly.
  • 77bp for Nov 2, 137bps to 4.45% Dec, terminal 4.87% for May’23 (off highs of 5.02% early Fri) and 4.57% for Dec’23.
  • Little reaction in ECB pricing to the miss for EA PMI mfg flash let alone spillover to the US, but remains to be seen if that’s the case with the US flash PMIs at 0945ET. Fed in media blackout.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied rateSource: Bloomberg