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Fed Rate Path Eases Back Into Middle Of Week’s Range

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have pushed lower since the MNI Chicago PMI missed expectations (46.9 vs cons 50.0 after 55.8, but with prices paid +10pts to 70.0) and with year-end flows likely having a sizeable contribution.
  • It pushes the rate path back more firmly into the middle of the week’s range, with 25bp of cumulative cuts priced for March, 78bp for June, 124bp for Sept and 158bp for end-2024 – see image for more.
  • Next week, ISM manufacturing for December lands on Wed with greater focus likely on the FOMC minutes on the same day to flesh out discussions around the FOMC's December pivot.

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