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Fed Rate Path Holding Four Consecutive Cuts From September

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied rates are little changed since being nudged higher by Gov Bowman earlier noting that the recent economic data have not provided evidence that inflation is on a clear downward path and the Fed may need to tighten monetary policy further.
  • It consolidates yesterday’s second half recovery that more than reversed a further dip after initial claims and PPI.
  • Cumulative moves from 5.08% effective: 0bp for Jun (+0.5bp on the day), -10bp for Jul (+1.5bp), -27bp for Sep (+2bp), -52bp for Nov (+2.5bp), -76bp for Dec (+2.5bp) and -100bp for Jan (+3bp).
  • Ahead: Daly ('24 voter) limited to a commencement speech before Bullard (non-voter) and Gov Jefferson (voter) in a panel late on.


FOMC-dated Fed FundsSource: Bloomberg

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