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Fed Rate Path Holds Bulk Of Post GDP/PCE Decline

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have lifted up to 1.5bps overnight, aided at the margin by pushback from ECB hawks. It still holds the bulk of yesterday’s decline on nuanced data which although expected included confirmation of a second quarter for core PCE at 2.0% annualized.
  • Cumulative cuts: 12.5bp for March, 33bp for May, 59bp for June and 140bp for Dec – table below.
  • Yesterday’s 2.0% increase for Q4 implies core PCE inflation of ~0.16% M/M in today’s December release, on the heavy assumption of no revisions to Oct/Nov.

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