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Fed Rate Path Intraday Lift Falls Short Of Yesterday’s Close

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates haven’t been able to claw back earlier declines seen overnight post a non-hawkish BoJ and which carried on until stronger than expected US housing starts.
  • There is a cumulative 20bp of cuts priced for March (vs 19bp yesterday), 43.5bp for May (from 40.5bp) and 142bp for end-2024 (from 141bp).
  • Today’s two 2024 voters saw Barkin hold his cards close to his chest in an interview with Yahoo Finance whilst Bostic spoke in more detail, noting progress but still seeing a ways to go to get inflation back to target (whilst reiterating Friday’s comments about seeing two rate cuts in 2024, starting 2H24).
  • Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee (’25 voter) is next up late today at 1800ET on Fox before returning for a WSJ podcast tomorrow.

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