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Fed Rate Path Nearly Unwinds ECB Drop

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes keep to 75bps fully priced for Nov having drifted lower in recent days.
  • 133.5bp to 4.42% for Dec’22 and a terminal 4.86% in May’23 sees an unwind of most of yesterday’s post-ECB cooling, potentially in spillover from European data beating.
  • Smaller retracement in 2H23 with 4.42% for Dec’23, with the Dec23-Dec22 spread zero from a peak 25bps last week when the Dec’23 peaked at almost 4.8%.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied hike (top panel) and rates (bottom panel)Source: Bloomberg

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