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Fed Rate Path Sliding With European Banks Under Pressure

STIR FUTURES
  • After pushing higher earlier in the European session with a terminal briefly tipping into the June FOMC decision just above 5%, the terminal is back circa 4.85% in May and potentially heading lower as Fed Funds implied hikes are cut in spillover from lower ECB rate hike pricing.
  • Pricing 15-16bps for next week’s FOMC, a cumulative 26-27bps for May and a larger intraday retracement further out back to 70bps of cuts to 4.17% year-end (similar to -72bps at yesterday’s close).

FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures implied ratesSource: Bloomberg

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