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Fed Rate Path Slips Lower With Powell's Press Conference Wrapped Up

STIR FUTURES
  • FOMC-dated OIS implied rates have started to fade with Chair Powell’s press conference over.
  • The June meeting dips 2bps to 5.08% but is still +1bps since the announcement.
  • Assuming an effective rate of 5.08%, it largely marks a perceived end to the tightening cycle, with today’s hike priced to be unwound with Sep at -27ps to 4.81% (now -1bp post-decision having been +3bp in the presser).
  • It’s followed by 74bp of cuts to 4.35% in Dec (now -1.5bp post-decision having been ~4.42% in the presser).

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