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Fed Rate Path Still Slightly Weighed By CPI

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied rates sit fractionally lower for the May 3 FOMC with a 17.5bp hike.
  • Rates for subsequent meetings have pushed higher overnight but remain below levels pre-FOMC minutes and more notably so pre-CPI. For example, the 48bp of cuts from current levels to 4.35% for the Dec FOMC is +3.5bp on the day, -2bp since just prior to the minutes and -6bp since CPI. The first full cut from current levels is still seen in Nov at -30bps.
  • No Fedspeak scheduled (Gov Waller next slated for tomorrow) but data in focus with PPI and weekly jobless claims.


Source: Bloomberg

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