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Fed Rate Path Treads Water Before Fedspeak-Led Docket

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates are little changed from Friday’s close, with a terminal still flickering around the Dec and Jan meetings and cut expectations on the low side but off post-FOMC mid-week lows.
  • Cumulative hikes from 5.33% effective: +5bp and Nov, +12bp to Dec and +12bp to Jan for a terminal 5.45%.
  • Cuts from terminal: 22bp to Jun’24 and 76bp to Dec’24. The latter closed at a recent low of 71bp after Wednesday’s FOMC decision although remains notably tighter than the >100bps seen a month ago.
  • Fedspeak: Goolsbee (’23 voter) offers his first post-FOMC views in a CNBC interview at 0830ET. Kashkari (’23) follows late on at 1800ET in a moderated discussion after very little policy-related content on Friday. Gov. Bowman has already implied she was the top 6.1% 2024 dot from last week’s SEP.

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