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Fed Rates Back At Pre-BoE Levels

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have dipped in recent trade as they continue a mixed US morning.
  • They’re ultimately only back to pre-BoE levels though, with the Dec’24 rate 1bp higher than Tuesday’s close. It has remained within Tuesday’s retail sales-inspired range throughout.
  • Cumulative cuts: 3bp Jul (unch), 18bp Sep (+0.5bp), 27bp Nov (+1bp), 47bp Dec (+1bp) and 61bp Jan (+1.5bp).
  • The BoE decision saw some dovish spillover before more notable two-way trade on US data at 0830ET.
  • Dovish factors: Jobless claims continued their recent trend increase, including initial claims for a payrolls reference period, and building permits & housing starts saw sizeable misses.
  • Hawkish factors: Offsetting a surprise decline in Philly Fed manufacturing activity, the price components saw strong increases, especially prices received in a change from limited signs of renewed passthrough in prior months.

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