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Fed Rates Drift Higher Post-Powell

STIR
  • After initially very little net reaction to Chair Powell’s prepared remarks, Fed Funds implied rates have pushed a touch higher during subsequent questioning.
  • Post-Powell increases are limited to 1bp for Sep-Dec meetings though, only trimming large declines seen in the second half of last week on a string of softer data releases.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 1bp Jul, Sep 19bp, 30bp Nov, 50bp Dec and 65bp Jan.
  • There don’t appear to be any obvious new headlines behind the move, with one of the main changes being a modestly dovish step re the labor market being “fully back in balance”.
  • Thursday's US CPI is now firmly in focus.

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