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Free AccessFed Rates Drift Lower, NY Fed Staff See Core PCE At 2% For End-2024
- Fed Funds implied rates have pushed lower through a particularly light session, moving back close to post-FOMC lows.
- Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 4.5bp May, 21.5bp Jun, 34bp Jul, 54bp Sep and 84bp Dec.
- NY Fed economists today published updated results for their DSGE model. Of note, end-2024 GDP growth was revised to 1.9% Y/Y from 1.2% at the Dec’23 update whilst core PCE inflation was revised 0.2pps lower to 2.0% Y/Y.
- The latter is in contrast to the median FOMC participant this week revising core PCE higher to 2.6% from 2.4% in the Dec SEP (and with 2% being below the full FOMC range of 2.4-3.0% for end-2024).
- Still to come, Bostic (’24 voter) speaks in a moderated discussion about household finances at 1600ET (no text). He revealed his above-median dot after the Dec SEP - looking for two cuts in 2024 - and will be watched for a similar indication today.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.