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Fed Rates Edge Lower, Powell Unlikely To Move But To Be Aware Of

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have cooled a little overnight but remain off post-FOMC lows, aided by yesterday’s data.
  • The data included firmer PMI price components, particularly strong Philly Fed forward-looking manufacturing sentiment and then a surge jump in existing home sales.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 4bp May, 20.5bp Jun, 32bp Jul, 52bp Sep and 82bp Dec.
  • Fedspeak: Fed Chair Powell starts post-FOMC blackout proceedings, with opening remarks at 0900ET before VC Jefferson and Gov. Bowman moderate discussions with industry leaders at a Fed Listens event.
  • That’s unlikely to be market moving, with Powell presumably sticking to remarks from the press conference statement if touching on policy at all, but is still worth being aware of.
  • VC Supervision Barr (voter) follows in a discussion on international monetary design at 1215ET (no text), before Bostic (’24 voter) in a discussion about household finance at 1600ET (no text). Bostic revealed his above-median dot after the Dec SEP - looking for two cuts in 2024 - and will be watched for a similar indication today.

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