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Fed Rates Hold Yesterday’s Climb, Awaiting Stronger Trigger Late In The Week

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates hold yesterday’s second half climb that came about with little new drivers, showing little impact from further declines in industrial commodity prices overnight.
  • It leaves implied rates close to highs seen since surprisingly soft US CPI on Jul 11, although still fully prices three cuts with the January meeting.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 0.5bp Jul, 24.5bp Sep, 39bp Nov, 61bp Dec and 78bp Jan.
  • A reminder that the FOMC is in media blackout for the Jul 31 decision whilst today sees a pick-up in data with existing home sales and some regional Fed manufacturing surveys but with greater data focus on GDP and PCE data on Thu/Fri.

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