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Fed Rates Marginally Lower, Treading Water Ahead Of CPI/FOMC

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates sit marginally lower overnight, more so June and July meetings, with pricing for Wednesday’s decision back at +6.5bps at levels after Thursday’s drop on a surprise spike in initial claims.
  • Cumulative changes from 5.08% effective: +6.5bp Jun (-1bp on the day), +20bp Jul (-1bp), +19bp Sep (-0.5bp), +10bp Nov (-0.5bp), -2.5bp Dec (-0.5bp), -16bp Jan (unch), with the combination leaving just 22.5bp of cuts from the July terminal to year-end.
  • Focus is firmly on tomorrow’s US CPI before the FOMC decision on Wednesday, with a thin docket today except for heavy Treasury issuance. Headlines are likely the main drivers today including BoE’s Mann speaking later although we don’t expect the same spillover as from last week’s BoC 25bp hike.

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