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Fed Rates Nudge Closer To Pre Dec FOMC Levels, CPI Revisions Watched

STIR
  • Today has seen little change in expectations for immediate FOMC meetings but Fed Funds implied rates have ground higher further out into 2024 with 2.5-3bp increases through 2H24.
  • Cumulative cuts: 6bp for Mar, 19bp for May, 42bp for Jun and 117bp for Dec. The latter is not quite at Monday’s recent high of 4.20% (which touched pre Dec FOMC levels) but is still more than 25bp higher than pre-payrolls levels.
  • The main data has been a marginally better than expected set of jobless claims releases, which showed initial claims still at a low four-week seasonally adjusted rate but with non-seasonally adjusted continuing claims still on the high side compared to similar weeks in 2022 and 2023.
  • Tomorrow sees US CPI revisions in focus (preview here) before potential comments from Dallas Fed’s Logan (non-voter) for the first time in a month.

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