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MNI MAS Preview - Jan 2025: On Hold But A Close Call

We expect the MAS to be on hold at tomorrow's policy meeting, although it could ease.
SingaporeAsia Bank - PreviewAPACMonetary Authority of SG - PreviewAnalysisEM Central Bank ReportsEM Central Bank PreviewStory

Executive Summary: 

  • The rough sell-side consensus is for an MAS easing tomorrow, mostly likely via a reduced pace of SGD NEER appreciation. The sharp loss of y/y inflation momentum warrants such a shift.
  • However, the firmer growth backdrop in the second half of 2024, coupled with 2025 uncertainties suggests the central bank doesn't have to ease at this meeting, although we accept this is a close call.
  • Markets have moved to price in greater easing risks with the SGD NEER comfortably away from the top end of the policy band.
  • See the full preview MAS Preview - Jan 2025.pdf: 
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Executive Summary: 

  • The rough sell-side consensus is for an MAS easing tomorrow, mostly likely via a reduced pace of SGD NEER appreciation. The sharp loss of y/y inflation momentum warrants such a shift.
  • However, the firmer growth backdrop in the second half of 2024, coupled with 2025 uncertainties suggests the central bank doesn't have to ease at this meeting, although we accept this is a close call.
  • Markets have moved to price in greater easing risks with the SGD NEER comfortably away from the top end of the policy band.
  • See the full preview MAS Preview - Jan 2025.pdf: