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Fed Rates Nudge Higher Post Claims, Closing The Gap From US CPI Miss

STIR
  • There has only been a small lift in Fed Funds implied rates after the lower-than-expected initial claims, partly offset by a drift higher in continuing claims and a small miss for Philly Fed (although as we note above, the latter had some surprisingly strong points as well).
  • There's still 24bp priced for next week’s FOMC whilst the terminal has nudged to a cumulative +35bp at 5.43% in Nov (+1bp since the release).
  • Gains then only extend more notably into 2024, with meetings in 2H24 rising 3-4bps on the data but it takes the curve back to pre-CPI levels. Cuts from the Nov terminal to Dec’24 are trimmed to 139bps from 142bps before the data and 148bp at yesterday’s close. See table.

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