Free Trial

Fed Rates Nudge Higher Post Claims, Closing The Gap From US CPI Miss

  • There has only been a small lift in Fed Funds implied rates after the lower-than-expected initial claims, partly offset by a drift higher in continuing claims and a small miss for Philly Fed (although as we note above, the latter had some surprisingly strong points as well).
  • There's still 24bp priced for next week’s FOMC whilst the terminal has nudged to a cumulative +35bp at 5.43% in Nov (+1bp since the release).
  • Gains then only extend more notably into 2024, with meetings in 2H24 rising 3-4bps on the data but it takes the curve back to pre-CPI levels. Cuts from the Nov terminal to Dec’24 are trimmed to 139bps from 142bps before the data and 148bp at yesterday’s close. See table.

To read the full story



MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.