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Fed Rates Off Post-PPI Extremes

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have pulled back a little further off Friday’s post-PPI extremes ahead of a holiday-thinned session. March pricing has mostly reversed the PPI hit but subsequent meetings see notably lower implied rates.
  • March cumulative cut pricing sits at 19bps, trimmed 2bp on the day and off a post-data 22.5bp.
  • Similarly, there is 79bp of cuts priced for June and 164bp for Dec, the latter trimmed 4.5bp on the day but still having increased 20bps over the two-day combination of CPI and PPI releases.
  • Barclays on Friday joined GS as one of the few analysts calling for a March rate cut, with there still a split between market pricing and analysts over the timing of the first cut.

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