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Fed Rates Only Marginally Higher With ADP and GDP/PCE Ahead

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates for near-term meetings haven't been swayed by German regional CPI pointing to stronger than expected national CPI (due 0800ET), although have lifted modestly further out into 2024 to chip away at yesterday’s post JOLTS/Conf Board slide. ADP for Aug and GDP/core PCE second releases for Q2 land ahead, although with market scepticism for the former after two large overshoots.
  • Cumulative hikes: +3bp for Sep and +12.5bp for Nov to a terminal 5.46% having dropped from a clearance of 5.50% ahead of JOLTS yesterday, with the terminal having only been higher this cycle on Mar 7-9.
  • Cuts from Nov terminal: 1.5bp to Dec’23 (unch from yday), 44bp to Jun’24 (from 46bp) and 115bp to Dec’24 (from 115bp).

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