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Fed Rates Paring Statement Jump Halfway Through Powell Presser

STIR
Powell saying the July meeting is live, and then doubly so “shouldn’t call June pause a skip” doesn’t help near-term OIS implied rates.
  • July hike: +16bp having stabilised at +18.5bp after the announcement, back at the +16bp cumulative pre-decision
  • Terminal: 5.28% in Sep, vs 5.32% held after announcement vs 5.25% pre-decision
  • Cuts from terminal to year-end: near unchanged on presser at 9bps from 15bps pre-decision.

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