MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR Cements S/T Res Level
Price Signal Summary – EUR Price Action Cements S/T Res Level
- The S&P E-Minis contract maintains a bullish tone and has again traded to a fresh cycle high, today. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Eurostoxx 50 futures have traded higher this week and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. The latest move higher undermines a recent bearish theme. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 4862.20.
- Key short-term resistance in EURUSD to watch is 1.0590, the 20-day EMA. It remains intact and Monday’s move lower reinforces the short-term importance of this resistance. A clear break of it is required to signal potential for a stronger recovery. EURGBP is trading below its recent highs. Attention is on a bullish engulfing candle pattern on Nov 12, that highlights a possible short-term reversal. 0.8260, the Nov 11 low, marks a key short-term support. The 20- and 50 day EMAs have been pierced. The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bearish and today’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions, marking a resumption of the downtrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend.
- Despite Tuesday’s gains, a bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and the Nov 25 move lower reinforces this theme. A resumption of bearish price action would open $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support.Gold is unchanged and is trading inside a tight range, for now. The long-term trend condition remains bullish and the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.
- Bund futures maintain a firmer tone and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Price has traded through 134.87, the 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 bear leg. A bullish corrective cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and recent gains reinforces current short-term conditions. Sights are on 96.67 next, a Fibonacci projection point.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 1.0937 High NOv 5 / 6 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.0825 High Nov 7
- RES 2: 1.0730 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0590/97/98 20-day EMA / High Nov 29
- PRICE: 1.0514 @ 06:07 GMT Dec 4
- SUP 1: 1.0425/0335 Low Nov 26 / 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.0311 1.382 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.0258 1.500 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.0201 61.8% retracement of the Sep 28 - Juk 18 bull leg
Key short-term resistance in EURUSD to watch is 1.0590, the 20-day EMA. It remains intact and Monday’s move lower reinforces the short-term importance of this resistance. A clear break of it is required to signal potential for a stronger recovery. This would open 1.0730, the 50-day EMA and allow for a continued unwinding of the oversold trend condition. The medium-term trend direction is down. The bear trigger lies at 1.0335, the Nov 22 low.
GBPUSD TECHS: Short-Term Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 1.3048 High Nov 6 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.2961 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.2849 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.2718/50 20-day EMA / High Nov 29
- PRICE: 1.2688 @ 06:30 GMT Dec 4
- SUP 1: 1.2567/2487 Low Nov 27 / 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.2446 Low May 9
- SUP 3. 1.2367 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 ‘23 - Sep 26 uptrend
- SUP 4: 1.2300 Low Apr 22 and a key support
Recent gains in GBPUSD are considered corrective and the move higher has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance is 1.2718, the 20-day EMA and a key short-term hurdle for bulls. It has been pierced, a clear break of the average would signal scope for a stronger recovery. The medium-term trend direction is down, with moving average studies in a bear-mode set-up. The bear trigger is 1.2487, the Nov 22 low.
EURGBP TECHS: Support Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
- RES 2: 0.8404 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 11 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.8350/76 50-day EMA / High Nov 19
- PRICE: 0.8287 @ 06:41 GMT Dec 4
- SUP 1: 0.8260 Low Nov 11 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
- SUP 4: 0.8200 Round number support
EURGBP is trading below its recent highs. Attention is on a bullish engulfing candle pattern on Nov 12, that highlights a possible short-term reversal. 0.8260, the Nov 11 low, marks a key short-term support. The 20- and 50 day EMAs have been pierced. A clear break of both averages would strengthen the risk of a reversal and open 0.8404, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, clearance of 0.8260 would resume the downtrend.
USDJPY TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 157.86 High Jul 19
- RES 3: 156.88 2.236 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
- RES 2: 155.89/156.75 High Nov 20 / 15 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 151.33/152.30 50- and 20-day EMA values
- PRICE: 150.00 @ 06:56 GMT Dec 04
- SUP 1: 148.65 Low Dec 03
- SUP 2: 148.17 50.0% retracement of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 bull leg
- SUP 3: 147.80 3.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 147.35 Low Oct 8
USDJPY traded to a fresh short-term cycle low yesterday, confirming a resumption of the current bear cycle and retracement of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 rally. The pair has recently traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs - a bearish development. Sights are on 148.17, a Fibonacci retracement. A reversal higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 156.75, the Nov 15 high. Initial firm resistance is 152.30, the 20-day EMA.
EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Outlook
- RES 4: 165.04/166.69 High Nov 15 / High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 164.76 High Nov 20 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 162.32 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 158.64/161.27 High Dec 2 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 157.92 @ 07:08 GMT Dec 4
- SUP 1: 156.18 Low Dec 03
- SUP 2: 156.05 Low Sep 17
- SUP 3: 155.15 Low Sep 16 and a key support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 8 / 14 2023
EURJPY remains soft and recent weakness marks an extension of the current bear cycle. A number of retracement points have been cleared and most recently, 157.87, 76.4% of the Sep 16 - Oct 31 bull cycle, has been pierced. A clear break of it would strengthen a bearish theme and open 155.15, the Sep 16 low. Initial firm resistance is 161.27, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this average is required to signal a reversal.
AUDUSD TECHS: Fresh Trend Low
- RES 4: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 3: 0.6733 High Oct 13
- RES 2: 0.6591/88 50-day EMA / High Nov 7 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 0.6523/50 20-day EMA / High Nov 25
- PRICE: 0.6438 @ 07:58 GMT Dec 4
- SUP 1: 0.6408 Intraday low
- SUP 3: 0.6400 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6350 Low Aug 5 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 2023
The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bearish and today’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions, marking a resumption of the downtrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for a move towards 0.6350, the Aug 5 low and the next key support. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6523, the 20-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 1.4294 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4246 2.00 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4196 1.764 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4090/4178 High Dec 02 / High Nov 26 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4063 @ 08:09 GMT Dec 4
- SUP 1: 1.3985/28 20-day EMA / Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 2: 1.3879 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
- SUP 4: 1.3747 Low Oct 17
The trend condition in USDCAD is unchanged, it remains bullish and the Nov 25 fresh cycle high reinforces this theme. A fresh cycle high confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and marks an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.4196 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3928, the Nov 25 low. For now, short-term weakness is considered corrective.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Maintains A Firmer Tone
- RES 4: 136.43 2.382 proj of the Nov 6 - 12 - 14 price swing
- RES 3: 136.20 High Oct 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 135.92 High Oct 2
- RES 1: 135.46 High Dec 2
- PRICE: 135.00 @ 05:47 GMT Dec 4
- SUP 1: 134.34/133.30 Low Nov 29 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2 131.28 Low Nov 14
- SUP 3: 130.58 Low Nov 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 129.99 1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
Bund futures maintain a firmer tone and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Price has traded through 134.87, the 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 bear leg. A clear break of this level strengthens a bullish theme and signals scope for a climb towards 136.20, the Oct 1 high. Initial firm support lies at 133.47, the 20-day EMA. First support lies at 134.34, the Nov 29 low.
BOBL TECHS: (H5) Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 119.925 2.500 proj of the Nov 6 - 12 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 119.813 2.382 proj of the Nov 6 - 12 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 119.674 2.236 proj of the Nov 6 - 12 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 119.480 High Dec 3
- PRICE: 119.180 @ 05:59 GMT Dec 4
- SUP 1: 118.840 Low Nov 29
- SUP 2: 118.486 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 118.280 Low Nov 25
- SUP 4: 118.000 Round number support
Bobl futures maintain a firmer tone and Monday's gains mark an extension of the current cycle. The contract is trading closer to its recent highs and this signals potential for a continuation near-term. Scope is seen for a climb towards 119.674 next, a Fibonacci projection. The bull trigger is 119.480, Monday’s high. Initial firm support lies at 118.486, the 20-day EMA. First support lies at 118.840, the Nov 29 low.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 107.402 1.50 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 107.335 High Oct 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 107.225 High Oct 3
- RES 1: 107.170 High Dec 2 / 3
- PRICE: 107.040 @ 06:10 GMT Dec 4
- SUP 1: 106.908/880 20-day EMA / Low Nov 28
- SUP 2: 106.740 Low Nov 22
- SUP 3: 106.645 Low Nov 18
- SUP 4: 106.485 Low Nov 5
Recent gains in Schatz futures highlight a continuation of the bull cycle that started Oct 31. 107.108, the 76.4% retracement of the bear leg between Oct 1 - 31, has been breached. This strengthens a bullish theme and opens 107.335, the Oct 1 high. Key short-term support is at 106.880, the Nov 28 low. A break of this level would highlight a possible reversal. Support at the 20-day EMA is at 106.908.
GILT TECHS: (H5) Bull Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 97.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 96.83 2.618 proj of the Nov 18 - 19 - 20 price swing
- RES 2: 96.67 2.500 proj of the Nov 18 - 19 - 20 price swing
- RES 1: 96.54 High Dec 3
- PRICE: 96.00 @ Close Dec 3
- SUP 1: 95.17 Low Nov 28
- SUP 2: 94.66 Low Nov 25
- SUP 3: 93.96 Low Nov 22
- SUP 4: 93.40 Low Nov 18 and a key short-term support
A bullish corrective cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and recent gains reinforces current short-term conditions. Sights are on 96.67 next, a Fibonacci projection point. On the downside, a reversal lower would refocus attention on the initial key support at 93.40, the Nov 18 low. A breach of this support would be a bearish development and highlight a reversal. First support lies at 95.17, the Nov 28 low.
BTP TECHS: (H5) Northbound
- RES 4: 123.83 1.764 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 123.43 1.618 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 123.11 1.500 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 123.43 High Dec 3
- PRICE: 122.47 @ Close Dec 4
- SUP 1: 121.75 Low Nov 29
- SUP 2: 120.71 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 120.05 Low Nov 25
- SUP 4: 119.11 Low Nov 18
BTP futures traded higher yesterday, once again marking an extension of the bull cycle that started Nov 7. The latest rally has resulted in a move through key resistance at 121.97, the Oct 1 high. A clear break of this level highlights an important bullish development and opens 123.11 next, a Fibonacci projection. The trend is overbought and a corrective pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Support to watch is 120.71, the 20-day EMA.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Strong Recovery
- RES 4: 5015.00 High Oct 21
- RES 3: 5106.00 High Sep 30 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 4961.00 High Nov 6 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 4913.00 High Dec 3
- PRICE: 4864.00 @ 06:28 GMT Dec 3
- SUP 1: 4821.68/4699.00 20-day EMA / Low Nov 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: 4707.00 Low Aug 9
- SUP 3: 4662.12 .76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 4586.00 Low Aug 6
Eurostoxx 50 futures have traded higher this week and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. The latest move higher undermines a recent bearish theme. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 4862.20. The clear breach of this average strengthens a bullish theme and signals scope for a stronger recovery, opening 4961.00, the Nov 6 high. Key support lies at 4699.00, the Nov 19 low. A break of it would resume the recent bear cycle.
E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 6145.26 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 6103.88 1.500 proj of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 6100.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 6073.75 Intraday high
- PRICE: 6069.50 @ 07:24 GMT Dec 4
- SUP 1: 5970.46 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5883.29 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5814.75 Low Nov 6
- SUP 4: 5724.25 Low Nov 4 and a key support
The S&P E-Minis contract maintains a bullish tone and has again traded to a fresh cycle high, today. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Sights are on the 6100.00 handle next. Initial support to watch lies at 5979.30, the 20-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (G5) Outlook Remains Bearish
- RES 4: $84.32 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $81.83 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $79.98/80.44 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 1: $75.79 - High Nov 5
- PRICE: $73.91 @ 07:10 GMT Dec 4
- SUP 1: $69.95 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $69.52/67.89 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $66.70 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $64.34 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Brent futures traded higher Tuesday but for now, remains in consolidation mode. The outlook is bearish and the Nov 25 move lower reinforces this theme. A continuation down would open $69.52 the Oct 1 low, and $67.89, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a clearer reversal higher would instead refocus attention on key resistance at $79.98, the Oct 7 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $75.79, the Nov 5 high.
WTI TECHS: (F5) Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: $80.25 - High Jul 5
- RES 3: $78.03 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $74.83/77.04 - High Oct 10 / 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $72.41 - High Nov 7
- PRICE: $70.13@ 07:16 GMT Dec 4
- SUP 1: $66.32 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $65.74/63.90 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $62.73 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
Despite Tuesday’s gains, a bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and the Nov 25 move lower reinforces this theme. A resumption of bearish price action would open $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.04, the Oct 8 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $72.41, the Nov 7 high.
GOLD TECHS: Monitoring Support
- RES 4: $2790.1 - High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $2750.0 - High Nov 5
- RES 2: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
- RES 1: $2721.4 - High Nov 25
- PRICE: $2644.6 @ 07:23 GMT Dec 4
- SUP 1: $2605.3/2564.4 - Low Nov 26 / 18
- SUP 2: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
- SUP 3: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12
- SUP 4: $2472.0 - Low Sep 4
Gold is unchanged and is trading inside a tight range, for now. The long-term trend condition remains bullish and the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Resistance to watch is $2721.4, the Nov 25 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a bullish short-term development. Key support to monitor is $2536.9, the Nov 14 low.
SILVER TECHS: Monitoring Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg
- RES 3: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.125/34.903 - High Nov 1 / High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $31.149/537 - 50-day EMA / High Nov 19
- PRICE: 30.933@ 08:11 GMT Dec 4
- SUP 1: $29.642 - Low Nov 28
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
The bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play and the metal continues to trade closer to its latest lows. Price has recently breached the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and traded through a trendline drawn from the Aug 8 low. A resumption of the bear leg would open $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is $31.149, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would highlight a possible reversal.