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Fed Rates Remain Little Changed From Pre-Payrolls Levels

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates are little changed since Friday’s close, consolidating the post-payrolls recovery from the initial decline - see table.
  • Cumulative cuts: 0.5bp Mar, 7bp May, 23bp Jun, 39bp Jul and 94bp Dec. At one point after payrolls, there had been 103bp of cuts priced for 2024.
  • The FOMC is now in blackout ahead of the Mar 19-20 meeting, with today’s light docket seeing attention firmly on tomorrow’s CPI release.

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