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Fed Rates Un-Swayed By ECB Speak, One Further Hike Priced By Nov

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates are minimally changed on the day with no spillover from Lagarde headlines (won’t be able to “state with full confidence” in the near future that the peak for rates has been reached) and further ECB speak.
  • Earlier, Morgan Stanley sees the Fed hiking 25bps in July with rates then still at 5.375% at end-23 before 100bp of cuts to 4.375% by end-24.
  • Cumulative changes from 5.08% effective: +18bp Jul (unch), +22.5bp Sep (+0.5bp), +25.5bp to a peak effective 5.33% in Nov (+0.5bp), +17.5bp Dec (+0.5bp) and +5.5bp Jan (+0.5bp).
  • No Fedspeak scheduled for today with focus still on Powell’s panel discussion in Sintra tomorrow.

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