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STIR: Fed Rates Unchanged, Initial Claims For Payrolls Ref Period Ahead

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates are broadly unchanged overnight, in headline watching mode but with scope for movement on today’s jobless claims data with initial claims covering the payrolls reference period.
  • It holds the week’s lean towards a next Fed cut coming in the July rather than June meeting although remains off the Sept seen prior to CPI and Dec seen after payrolls earlier in the month.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 0.5bp Jan, 6.5bp Mar, 12.5bp May, 22bp Jun, 26bp Jul and 39bp Dec. 
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  • Fed Funds implied rates are broadly unchanged overnight, in headline watching mode but with scope for movement on today’s jobless claims data with initial claims covering the payrolls reference period.
  • It holds the week’s lean towards a next Fed cut coming in the July rather than June meeting although remains off the Sept seen prior to CPI and Dec seen after payrolls earlier in the month.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 0.5bp Jan, 6.5bp Mar, 12.5bp May, 22bp Jun, 26bp Jul and 39bp Dec. 
image