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Fed Speakers Eyed With Core Curves Trading Mixed

BONDS

Global core FI is a touch stronger in early Friday trade, with curves trading mixed.

  • Limited price action in bonds is reflective of consolidation across asset classes, with equities trading sideways/higher, and the USD partially paring Thursday's rise.
  • The US and UK short ends are stronger as BoE and Fed terminal rate hike pricing has softened about 1bp apiece vs Thursday's US data / Fed speaker induced jump; ECB is up <1bp after a flat performance yesterday.
  • Bull steepening is evident in the US curve, with twist steepening in the UK and a flat German curve out to 10Y.
  • Gilt futures touched a 2023 low (continuous contract) with Bunds at May's low before regaining ground. Tsys are trading within Thursday's ranges (and a 7 tick daily range).
  • With a limited data slate Friday, including no major US releases, the main events on the schedule are central bank speakers: BoE's Haskel, ECB's Schnabel / Lagarde / de Cos, and Fed's Williams, Bowman, and Powell.
  • Looking ahead to the weekend, attention will remain on developments in US debt limit negotiations.

Latest levels:

  • Jun US 10Y futures (TY) up 5/32 at 114-2.5 (L: 113-30 / H: 114-05)
  • Jun Bund futures (RX) up 4 ticks at 134.07 (L: 133.76 / H: 134.33)
  • Jun Gilt futures (G) down 7 ticks at 98.91 (L: 98.76 / H: 99.21)
  • Italy / German 10-Yr spread 0.8bps tighter at 185.9bps
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