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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR FUTURES
- Fed Funds implied hikes drift lower over 2022 with 69.5bp for Nov (-0.5bp) and 4.26% for Dec (-2bp) but see a larger slide for 2023 with a terminal 4.60% May’23 (-8.5bp) and 4.38% Dec’23 (-12bp) further off yesterday’s cycle highs.
- Continued real rates talk from Mester (’22) yesterday and Evans (’23) today – comments below – after Powell explicitly mentioned the 1% real rate expected once hitting the terminal 4.6% next year in the FOMC Q&A.
- Ahead: Evans is currently appearing again before Powell (digital currency panel), Bullard (’22), Kashkari ('23) and Daly ('24) late on.
Source: Bloomberg
- Mester: Mon pol will need to be in restrictive stance with real rates moving into positive territory and remaining there for some time, Fed rates are not coming down next year. Dollar value set in markets but we study implications. ·
- Evans: Real rate may be 1.5% next spring, by spring 2023 we can sit and wait on rates although exact timing of rate path less important than goal. If things get better perhaps we could do less.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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