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Fed Terminal Pushes Back Towards Cycle High

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes unwind yesterday’s dip, in part taking a cue from a small beat for UK CPI.* 77.5bp for Nov (unch), 141.5bp to 4.5% Dec (+2bp), terminal 4.94% Mar’23 (+4bp) and 4.58% Dec’23 (+4.5bp).
  • Kashkari (’23) yesterday: “If we don’t see progress in underlying inflation, or core inflation, I don’t see why I would advocate stopping at 4.5, or 4.75, or something like that.”
  • Back-loaded Fedspeak: Beige Book plus no text from repeat Kashkari, Evans ('23) and Bullard (’22) welcome remarks.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures implied ratesSource: Bloomberg

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