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Fedspeak On Columbus Day

STIR FUTURES
  • Very light volumes with Columbus Day but Fed Funds implied hikes sit just off Friday’s post-payrolls high with 73.5bp for the Nov 2 FOMC.
  • Meetings further out consolidate last week’s climb, with 4.35% for Dec’22 now consistent with the 2022 median dot, before peaking at 4.65% in May’23 and then easing to 4.38% Dec’23 vs 4.6% dot.
  • Still have Evans (’23) and VC Brainard at the NABE conference despite the holiday, Brainard (1300ET) with text and Q&A. She said Sep 30 that Fed policy needs to be restrictive for some time and is committed to avoid pulling back prematurely but should consider spillovers as rates tighten globally.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied ratesSource: Bloomberg

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