Free Trial

Few Major Exporters To China Seeing Positive Growth In Shipments

ASIA

There was significant optimism regarding China’s growth in 2023 but it has tended to disappoint. This impacts some countries more than others in terms of their exposure but also the composition of exports to China. China’s economic outlook has been named by a number of central banks as a significant uncertainty going forward.

  • Of the ten economies with the largest share of merchandise exports going to China only two have positive annual export growth there. Commodity-rich Australia is the largest with 29% of the total in 2022 and 3-month average growth in exports to China rose 17.1% y/y in August. While NZ is the second largest, its shipments fell 17.4% y/y. Trade data are nominal and so commodity prices have also impacted the outcomes.
  • Korea has been hit badly with exports declining 20.8% y/y 3mma in September and they were worth 9.3% of GDP in 2022, so this is a significant drag on Korean growth. Japan’s are only worth 3.4% of GDP but in August growth deteriorated to -11.8% y/y from -9.3%.
  • As well as Australia, the Philippines is still seeing positive export growth to China but it only accounts for 13.9% of merchandise exports and 2.7% of GDP. In July they rose a robust 11.1% y/y.
  • Growth in Indonesia’s exports to China fell 8.3% y/y in August and Thailand’s improved to -1.7% y/y 3mma.
Global exports to China %

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

Exports to China y/y% 3-month ma

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.