Fin Min Outlines Surplus But Warns Of Risks w/Election On Horizon

The Irish Department of Finance has released a statementoutlining the gov'ts fiscal balance and receipts for 2023. Following the increase in Ireland's rate of corporation tax from 12.5% to 15%, to come into line with the minimum rate agreed to by 135+ nations nationwide, Finance Minister Michael McGrath states that he "does not expect a cash benefit to the state from the new global 15% tax base until 2026."

• In the statement, McGrath says that "Indications are that pandemic-era surge in exports in a small number of sectors... are now unwinding; this would mean more modest growth in corporation tax receipts in the coming years. These developments underscore the importance of ensuring that permanent fiscal commitments are not made on the basis of transitory revenues."
• McGrath's comments, seemingly both positive in tone but warning of risks to stability, come as the prospect of an autumn general election looms. The next election is not due until Mar 2025 at the latest, but there is speculation it could come as soon as Nov this year.
• With the left-wing nationalist Sinn Fein leading in opinion polls, McGrath's centrist Fianna Fail and its centre-right coalition partners Fine Gael need to bolster support for the political status quo if they are to remain in power.
• With Sinn Fein campaigning on a platform of easing pressures in Ireland's housing sector, as well as the party's historical commitment to Irish unification, the governing parties are seeking to argue stability is needed, not more risky gov't spending.