Final Constitutional Convention Shows Fragmentation But Leftist Advantage

The final results from Chile's Constitutional Convention election are in and it shows a fragmented political landscape, but with a seeming advantage for politicians on the left of the political spectrum.

• The chart below from America Elects shows that while no single bloc (the far-left Apruebo Dignidad, centre-left Lista del Apruebo, centre-right Vamos por Chile, or independents) has enough seats to act as a 'blocking minority' (52 seats out of 155 required to block proposals from the draft constitution).
• While the independent groups cannot be viewed as a homogenous bloc, making the potential policy proposals they may support difficult to categorise, a sizeable section (24 members) come from the far-left List of the People alliance. This group may find common cause with the Apruebo Dignidad alliance, forming a far-left bloc of exactly 52 seats, the required number to act as a blocking minority.
• This would be enough to halt proposals from the centre-left or centre-right, even if they were able to join up to form a broad moderate majority coalition in the Constitutional Convention.
• As such, the drafting of a new constitution is likely to prove a protracted and bitter process, potentially raising political risks further ahead of or after the November 2021 election.

Chart 1. Constitutional Convention, Seats

Source: @americaelige