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MNI US CPI Preview: Still Too High For Comfort

Core CPI inflation is expected to decelerate slightly in December, with focus on housing and core goods prices.
USHomepageInflation InsightMarketsStoryNorth America

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • Consensus sees core CPI inflation decelerating slightly to between 0.2 to 0.3% M/M in December, with MNI’s analyst review pointing to an average estimate of 0.24% so a bias toward a 0.2% rounded figure.
  • Likely to be the single most closely watched individual aspect of Wednesday’s CPI report, rental inflation is expected to accelerate to an average figure that firmly rounds to 0.3% M/M in December.
  • Supercore inflation is seen pulling back, though, to the upper 0.20s%, from 0.34% in November.
  • If housing is our top pick to watch this month then core goods inflation – which is seen pulling back in December - is closely second, amid tariffs speculation.
  • Initial estimates point to core PCE inflation at ~0.20% M/M, softer in outright terms but on a relative basis an acceleration from the softer 0.115% in Nov. That outlook will hinge partly on PPI data out Tuesday.
  • It is clear that the Fed will hold in January, with the first plausibly “live” meeting not until March. But with pricing having shifted so quickly away from 2025 cuts, it’s a good juncture to assess whether markets have gotten too hawkish.
  • Even in-line inflation readings could bolster the FOMC leadership’s confidence that they are on track to get PCE to 2%, and leave the door open to two rate cuts later this year, though this report is not widely expected to provide the requisite evidence.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • Consensus sees core CPI inflation decelerating slightly to between 0.2 to 0.3% M/M in December, with MNI’s analyst review pointing to an average estimate of 0.24% so a bias toward a 0.2% rounded figure.
  • Likely to be the single most closely watched individual aspect of Wednesday’s CPI report, rental inflation is expected to accelerate to an average figure that firmly rounds to 0.3% M/M in December.
  • Supercore inflation is seen pulling back, though, to the upper 0.20s%, from 0.34% in November.
  • If housing is our top pick to watch this month then core goods inflation – which is seen pulling back in December - is closely second, amid tariffs speculation.
  • Initial estimates point to core PCE inflation at ~0.20% M/M, softer in outright terms but on a relative basis an acceleration from the softer 0.115% in Nov. That outlook will hinge partly on PPI data out Tuesday.
  • It is clear that the Fed will hold in January, with the first plausibly “live” meeting not until March. But with pricing having shifted so quickly away from 2025 cuts, it’s a good juncture to assess whether markets have gotten too hawkish.
  • Even in-line inflation readings could bolster the FOMC leadership’s confidence that they are on track to get PCE to 2%, and leave the door open to two rate cuts later this year, though this report is not widely expected to provide the requisite evidence.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

Keep reading...Show less