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Final Data Confirms Mixed May HICP Print

EUROZONE DATA
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Eurozone Final HICP confirmed the May flash prints, at +2.6% Y/Y (vs +2.4% in April) and +0.2% M/M (vs +0.6% in April). Energy ended its 12-month deflationary period. Whilst processed food, alcohol & tobacco and non-energy industrial goods (NEIG, or core goods) disinflated Y/Y, services and unprocessed food inflation accelerated in May.
  • Core inflation on an annual basis printed in line with flash at +2.9% Y/Y (+2.7% April), and on a monthly basis it slowed to +0.4% M/M from +0.7% in April.
  • In terms of the larger country, France, Portugal, and Finland saw downwardly revisions from flash HICP Y/Y by 0.1pp to 2.6%, 3.8%, and 0.4%, respectively. Greece and Ireland meanwhile saw upwardly revisions, to 2.4% and 2.0%.
  • The final readings show the contribution from services inflation rose again after falling in April, contributing +1.83pp (vs 1.64pp April), remaining the largest contributor to HICP overall.
  • Meanwhile, the contribution from processed food, alcohol and tobacco fell for the fourteenth consecutive month to +0.43pp (+0.49% April) - the lowest since November 2021. Similarly, NEIG's contribution fell again for the fifteenth consecutive month to +0.18pp (+0.23pp April).
  • Energy's contribution was positive for the first time since April 2023 as base effects continue to drop out of the Y/Y comparison, resulting in a contribution of +0.04pp (-0.04pp April).
  • To note, unprocessed foods contribution increased slightly further to +0.08pp from +0.06pp in April.
  • Later today, the ECB releases calculations of key underlying inflation metrics based on the final data, which will form part of the Governing Council's decision-making process as it assesses price pressures going into the July meeting.

MNI, Eurostat

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Eurozone Final HICP confirmed the May flash prints, at +2.6% Y/Y (vs +2.4% in April) and +0.2% M/M (vs +0.6% in April). Energy ended its 12-month deflationary period. Whilst processed food, alcohol & tobacco and non-energy industrial goods (NEIG, or core goods) disinflated Y/Y, services and unprocessed food inflation accelerated in May.
  • Core inflation on an annual basis printed in line with flash at +2.9% Y/Y (+2.7% April), and on a monthly basis it slowed to +0.4% M/M from +0.7% in April.
  • In terms of the larger country, France, Portugal, and Finland saw downwardly revisions from flash HICP Y/Y by 0.1pp to 2.6%, 3.8%, and 0.4%, respectively. Greece and Ireland meanwhile saw upwardly revisions, to 2.4% and 2.0%.
  • The final readings show the contribution from services inflation rose again after falling in April, contributing +1.83pp (vs 1.64pp April), remaining the largest contributor to HICP overall.
  • Meanwhile, the contribution from processed food, alcohol and tobacco fell for the fourteenth consecutive month to +0.43pp (+0.49% April) - the lowest since November 2021. Similarly, NEIG's contribution fell again for the fifteenth consecutive month to +0.18pp (+0.23pp April).
  • Energy's contribution was positive for the first time since April 2023 as base effects continue to drop out of the Y/Y comparison, resulting in a contribution of +0.04pp (-0.04pp April).
  • To note, unprocessed foods contribution increased slightly further to +0.08pp from +0.06pp in April.
  • Later today, the ECB releases calculations of key underlying inflation metrics based on the final data, which will form part of the Governing Council's decision-making process as it assesses price pressures going into the July meeting.

MNI, Eurostat