Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CEE
The final opinion polls coming out prior to Bulgaria's 4 April general election show PM Boyko Borisov's GERB party on course to win a plurality of seats in the 240-member National Assembly, but the prospect of coalition building looks a difficult prospect for both him and the main opposition centre-left Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP).
- Alpha Research poll: GERB: 28% (-1), BSP: 20% (-3), ITN: 13% (-2), DPS: 13% (+1), DB: 6%, ISMV: 6% (+1), VMRO-BNM: 4%. (+/-) vs. 26 Feb-1 March 2021. Fieldwork: 27-30 March 2021. Sample size: 1,007
- The electoral threshold to win seats is 4%, meaning the right-wing nationalist VMRO-Bulgarian National Movement is right on the edge of ensuring representation. In the 2017 election, VMRO-BNM ran as part of the United Patriots coalition, which currently governs with GERB. Should they re-enter parliament they could seek to prop up another Borisov gov't, although a third, and potentially a fourth, partner would be required to reach a majority.
- Based on estimates if this polling was borne out in the final result (see chart below), even a GERB-VMRO-BNM-DPS coalition would hold 120 out of 240 seats, with the remaining 120 in opposition.
- As such, expect much horse-trading post election as parties try to cobble together coalitions, while there is a strong prospect of a snap poll later in the year.
Chart 1. Estimate of Election Results Based On Alpha Research Poll
Source: Alpha Research, Martin Ossikovski, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok