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Finance Minister Arista Sees Economy Growing 4.5-5% y/y In May

PERU
  • Finance Minister Arista said yesterday that the economy is seen growing by 4.5-5% y/y in May, driven by good fishing results and that the figure could be revised upwards. This would follow a 5.3% y/y gain in economic activity in April, which was well above the 2.2% consensus and the fastest pace of growth since September 2021. The May data are due for publication on July 15.
  • Before then, the central bank is due to hold its next monetary policy meeting on July 11. Following the slight increase in headline inflation to 2.3% y/y in June, with core inflation holding just above the target range, at 3.1% y/y, a number of analysts are leaning towards a further pause in the easing cycle next week. However, the central bank is still expected to deliver further cuts in H2, with several analysts seeing scope for 75bp of easing to 5.0% by year-end.
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