MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, July 4

MNI BRIEF: China Has Four Months To Negotiate EU EV Agreement

RPT-MNI INTERVIEW: ISM Choppiness Not A Clear Signal For Worry

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY98 Bln Via OMO Thurs; Rates Unchanged

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1305 Thurs; -0.79% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS THURS

Factory Orders Decline as Non-EU Orders Dip

DMP survey increases probability of August cut

MNI: UK JUNE CONSTRUCTION PMI 52.2 (FCST: 54.0); MAY 54.7

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

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Finance Minister Arista Sees Economy Growing 4.5-5% y/y In May

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  • Finance Minister Arista said yesterday that the economy is seen growing by 4.5-5% y/y in May, driven by good fishing results and that the figure could be revised upwards. This would follow a 5.3% y/y gain in economic activity in April, which was well above the 2.2% consensus and the fastest pace of growth since September 2021. The May data are due for publication on July 15.
  • Before then, the central bank is due to hold its next monetary policy meeting on July 11. Following the slight increase in headline inflation to 2.3% y/y in June, with core inflation holding just above the target range, at 3.1% y/y, a number of analysts are leaning towards a further pause in the easing cycle next week. However, the central bank is still expected to deliver further cuts in H2, with several analysts seeing scope for 75bp of easing to 5.0% by year-end.
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  • Finance Minister Arista said yesterday that the economy is seen growing by 4.5-5% y/y in May, driven by good fishing results and that the figure could be revised upwards. This would follow a 5.3% y/y gain in economic activity in April, which was well above the 2.2% consensus and the fastest pace of growth since September 2021. The May data are due for publication on July 15.
  • Before then, the central bank is due to hold its next monetary policy meeting on July 11. Following the slight increase in headline inflation to 2.3% y/y in June, with core inflation holding just above the target range, at 3.1% y/y, a number of analysts are leaning towards a further pause in the easing cycle next week. However, the central bank is still expected to deliver further cuts in H2, with several analysts seeing scope for 75bp of easing to 5.0% by year-end.