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Finance Minister In Davos, BanRep Next Week

COLOMBIA
  • Finance Minister José Antonio Ocampo speaks at the events Reversing the Tide of Global Inequality and Is the World in a Debt Spiral? at the World Economic Forum. The Minister of Mines and Energy, Irene Vélez, also participates in the panel The Different Roads to Energy Transition.
  • The next BanRep meeting/decision falls on January 27. As a reminder, FM Ocampo commented to Reuters on Tuesday that the central bank does not need to raise the policy rate beyond its current level of 12% as inflation would have peaked.
    • It is worth noting that despite Ocampo being a member of the BanRep board, he also indicated that interest rates were “sufficiently high” back when the overnight rate was 200 bps lower at 10%. Market consensus for next week’s decision remains for a 100bp rate hike to 13.00%.
  • November economic activity data appears to be consistent with above-potential Colombian activity, but show it downshifting toward more sustainable levels after pandemic-related stimulus pushed it above capacity. It is falling earlier than the central bank expected, which may highlight downside risks to growth projections.
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