FINANCIALS: Allianz: Good Results, Supportive To Spreads. Buyback Not Surprise.

Allianz (ALVGR: Aa2/AA/AA-u) results are 7% ahead of consensus with S2 ratio also ahead but does include a new EUR0.5bn equity buyback. Guidance is maintained, consensus being towards the top end. Spreads have marginally outperformed insurance peers; these results are supportive as we don’t think the new buyback is a major surprise.

• Credit stats: solvency II ratio is 40bp ahead of consensus (at 206%, +30bp q/q) though downside equity market sensitivity is very slightly higher vs. Mar-24. The share buyback is being expanded to EUR1.5bn for FY24 which, in practice, means an additional EUR0.5bn between now and year-end. The equity market
• Operating income is 7% ahead of consensus, with only asset mgmt appearing weak within this. Life & Health was still little better than flat y/y. Even with “elevated NatCat” and “one large loss”, P&C combined ratio is 1.5pp better than consensus (at 93.5%) – positive for Hannover Re and other GI businesses. Pre-tax is 7% ahead of consensus.
• Guidance is, broadly, maintained from Mar-24 positions with the operating profit outlook (of EUR14.8bn +/-1bn) which means consensus (of 15.4bn) is already towards the top-end. The equity payout is EUR0.5bn higher, too.

There’s a media call at 1000 but the main analysts’ call is 1330 (London time) at: https://www.youtube.com/live/US60g9MDg0k